NFL 2006Bill Nevin, head of sports at BetUSA.com, previews the 2006/7 NFL seasonIf the bettors have got it right then this year’s race for the Super Bowl is one of the most open ever. Normally we expect to see the early cash focused around five or six teams but this year we’re seeing a wide range of action, with bettors looking for big odds teams to provide a shock in Miami next February. We put up our line on the Super Bowl three minutes into the second half of last year’s game but we saw very little action until the draft. Normally you could expect the reigning champions to attract good support but the Steelers have been utterly friendless, even though they have managed back-to-back titles on two occasions to date. The absence of Roethlisberger in week one didn’t hurt them as they beat the Dolphins with two fourth quarter touchdowns but I think they will need a few more convincing performances before the bettors step in with any serious money. Our biggest loser at this point (Monday 4 Sept) are the Saints. New Orleans supporters have bet them from 80-1 into 45-1 and it is hard to think they could have a worse season than last year. The return to their home stadium has to give them a few more wins and Reggie Bush will be a huge boost but I can’t honestly see them going all the way (their linebackers are the worst in the country) and I am happy with our position. Dallas are the next best supported team and I was a big fan of the Cowboys last season at triple the odds offered now. The money mainly comes on the back of T.O.’s arrival. We always see cash for Parcells’ teams but I am not 100% convinced this year and would happily take plenty more bets at 7/1. The main concern for Cowboys fans is that Drew Bledsoe is so injury prone. It’s about 50% that he misses more games than he plays as it seems that even if he trips on a feather he will shatter four toes. The AFC looks a stronger half than the NFC but not to the extent that it has in the past few years. We make the AFC 4.5 points favorites for the Super Bowl with a under/over of 47.5. Those who like a long-term position have in the past five seasons found they can get a good middle later in the season by taking the AFC now and then betting the NFC with a double figure start in about week 9. The team that interests me most is the Ravens. Jamal Lewis had his worst season ever in 2005/6 but he was the key player on the team and opponents stacked their defense to stop him running. Now those opponents need to think about Steve McNair too and with Kyle Boller as a very decent backup if McNair is injured the Ravens have a lot of reasons to be cheerful. I’ve had some 50/1 with one of our rivals and if they start well (which they should do against Tampa, Oakland and Cleveland) the Ravens will be much shorter odds by week 3. Pre-season indications suggest that Green Bay are the worst team in the league. I saw them at Lambeau at the end of last season and they looked poor then but on the evidence of what we have seen in August they have regressed since then. They look a fair wager to record under six victories at odds of +140. |
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