2006 World Series of PokerBill Nevin, head of sports at BetUSA.com, assesses the betting on the 2006 World Series of Poker; modified with permission.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It is not easy to predict the winner of the World Series of Poker. With an expected 8,000 runners some would argue that it is a lottery dressed up as the world’s richest poker tournament. But the fact is that the winner will have to be a good poker player and that it will take a lot more than pure luck to win the estimated $10 million first prize. Ten months ago BetUSA.com opened betting on the World Series with a list of 300 of the top players in the world. Since then we had been adding players each week and are now offering odds on more than 600 players. Phil Ivey is the 150-1 favorite, followed by Daniel Negreanu at 225-1, Phil Hellmuth and Howard ‘The Professor’ Lederer at 250-1 and Gus Hansen, Chris ‘Jesus’ Ferguson and John Juanda at 300-1. Last year’s champion, Joe Hachem, is on offer at 1000-1, even though he has two final tables to his name in the course of this year’s World Series. Many bracelet holders are on offer at odds of up to 2000-1, meaning that for a very small outlay you can have a huge payday if you are lucky enough to pick the winner. Some people have asked us: “How can any player be as low as 150-1 in an eight thousand player event?” The answer to this is twofold. The first is what odds would you make Phil Ivey? This usually provokes the person to say 2000-1 or so but they become curiously reluctant to allow anyone to have a bet at those odds. When I have offered to back Ivey at 500-1 or 250-1 they also refuse, which suggests that 2000-1 is not the correct price! In our view Phil Ivey is easily the best no limit poker player in the world. He plays relatively few tournaments but those he takes part in he tends to do well – witness his 3rd place finish in this year’s $50k H.O.R.S.E event in which many felt he was unlucky not to win it. Is Phil Ivey 50 times better than the average player in the $10k main event at the World Series? Yes, we think possibly he might be. The second reason some of the players are relatively short odds is simply a question of supply and demand. The big name players like Ivey, Daniel Negreanu, Phil Hellmuth and Dan Harrington are constantly shown on television and as a result bettors know their names and want to have a bet. Given how quickly we can build up an enormous liability at odds of 1000-1 or even 500-1, if the bets come in for those players then we do have to cut the odds. At the moment we are facing high six figure payouts on 23 players, which gives you some idea of how much the power of television influences people’s betting on the World Series. Probably the best value is to find a player who is relatively unfashionable and does well in the serious cash games and so plays relatively few tournaments. Sure you are going to have to get lucky to find the winner but if you do you are going to be paid handsomely for your luck! Prior to Play Phil Ivey 150-1 Daniel Negreanu 225-1 Phil Hellmuth 250-1 Howard (The Professor) Lederer 250-1 Gus Hansen 300-1 Chris (Jesus) Ferguson 300-1 John Juanda 300-1 Layne Flack 400-1 Marcel Luske 400-1 Barry Greenstein 400-1 Carlos Mortenson 400-1 Scotty Nguyen 400-1 Sam Farha 400-1 Greg (Fossilman) Raymer 400-1 Mike (The Mouth) Matusow 400-1 Michael Mizrachi 400-1 Dave (Devilfish) Ulliott 500-1 Phil (Unabomber) Laak 500-1 Erik Seidel 500-1 Huckleberry Seed 500-1 Johnny Chan 500-1 John (World) Hennigan 500-1 Men (The Master) Nguyen 500-1 Paul Phillips 500-1 Ram (Crazy Horse) Vaswani 500-1 TJ Cloutier 500-1 Dan Harrington 500-1 Annie Duke 500-1 Antonio Esfandiari 500-1 Doyle (Texas Dolly) Brunson 500-1 John DAgostino 750-1 Brian Wilson 750-1 Lee Watkinson 750-1 Michael Gracz 750-1 Alan Goehring 750-1 Allen Cunningham 750-1 Alex Brenes 750-1 Amir Vahedi 750-1 Asher Derei 750-1 Chris Bigler 750-1 Chip Jett 750-1 Chris Grigorian 750-1 David Chui 750-1 Dave (El Blondie) Colclough 750-1 David Singer 750-1 David (The Dragon) Pham 750-1 Erick Lindgren 750-1 Freddy Deeb 750-1 Gary (The Choirboy) Jones 750-1 Gabe Thaler 750-1 Gavin Griffin 750-1 Hassan Habib 750-1 Humberto Brenes 750-1 Jennifer Harman 750-1 John Shipley 750-1 Julian Gardner 750-1 Josh Arieh 750-1 Jean-Robert Bellande 750-1 (Minneapolis) Jim Meehan 750-1 Kathy Liebert 750-1 Lucy Rokach 750-1 Todd Brunson 750-1 Mel Judah 750-1 Minh Ly 750-1 Prahlad Friedman 750-1 Paul Darden 750-1 Paul Maxfield 750-1 Phil Gordon 750-1 Scott Fischman 750-1 Surindar Sunar 750-1 Tony Cosineau 750-1 Tony Ma 750-1 Ted Forrest 750-1 Dutch Boyd 750-1 Toto Leonides 750-1 Young Phan 750-1 David (Chip) Reese 750-1 John Spadevechia 750-1 Chris Moneymaker 750-1 Bill Gazes 1000-1 Billy Duarte 1000-1 Blair Rodman 1000-1 Brent Carter 1000-1 Cindy Violette 1000-1 (Syracuse) Chris Tsiprailides 1000-1 Chau Giang 1000-1 Dustin (Neverwin) Woolf 1000-1 Daniel Larsson 1000-1 Danny Nguyen 1000-1 (Action) Dan Alspach 1000-1 David Williams 1000-1 Dan Heimiller 1000-1 Dennis Waterman 1000-1 David Plastik 1000-1 David Levi 1000-1 Diego Cordovez 1000-1 David Benyamine 1000-1 David Oppenheim 1000-1 Erik Sagstrom 1000-1 Farzad Bonyadi 1000-1 Frankie ODell 1000-1 Gavin Smith 1000-1 Harry Demetriou 1000-1 Hoyt Corkins 1000-1 Jason Lester 1000-1 (Miami) John Cernutto 1000-1 Joseph Hachem 1000-1 Jeff Shulman 1000-1 Jesse Jones 1000-1 Joe (The Elegance) Beevers 1000-1 Johan Storakers 1000-1 John Bonnetti 1000-1 John Esposito 1000-1 John Phan 1000-1 John Kabbaj 1000-1 James Van Allstyne 1000-1 Keith (The Camel) Hawkins 1000-1 Keith Lehr (Jet) 1000-1 Kenna James 1000-1 Lee Salem 1000-1 Lee Nelson 1000-1 Mike Sexton 1000-1 Mike Carson 1000-1 Martin De Knijff 1000-1 Mickey Appleman 1000-1 Mel Wiener 1000-1 Mark Seif 1000-1 Nikolaos Frangos 1000-1 ONeil Longson 1000-1 Padraig Parkinson 1000-1 Peter Costa 1000-1 Phillip Marmostein 1000-1 Paul Wolfe 1000-1 Pascal Perrault 1000-1 Rory Liffey 1000-1 Raja Kattamuri 1000-1 Robert Williamson 1000-1 Rob Hollink 1000-1 Richard Tatlovitch 1000-1 Willie Tann 1000-1 Temperance Hutter 1000-1 Scott Gray 1000-1 Stan Goldstein 1000-1 Thor Hansen 1000-1 Tony (The Lizard) Bloom 1000-1 Tony D 1000-1 Tony Guoga (Tony G) 1000-1 Tuan Le 1000-1 (Captain) Tom Franklin 1000-1 Thomas (Thunder) Keller 1000-1 Yosh Nakano 1000-1 Patrick Antonius 1000-1 Alan Betson 1000-1 Andrew Black 1000-1 Andy Bloch 1000-1 An Tran 1000-1 Hung La 1500-1 Haralabos Voulgaris 1500-1 Hans (Tuna) Lund 1500-1 Iwan Jones 1500-1 Isabelle (No Mercy) Mercier 1500-1 Ivan Donaghy 1500-1 Ivo Donev 1500-1 Jimmy Tran 1500-1 Joe Saumarez Smith 1500-1 John (Tex) Barch 1500-1 John Myung 1500-1 Jani Sointula 1500-1 John Pires 1500-1 Yakov Hirsch 1500-1 Ian Woodley 1500-1 Ian McDonald 1500-1 Jay Heimowitz 1500-1 Jim Bechtel 1500-1 Joanne (JJ) Lui 1500-1 Juha Hellpi 1500-1 Jamie Posner 1500-1 JP Kelly 1500-1 Jason Viriyayuthakorn 1500-1 Jan Boubli 1500-1 Jan Svajik 1500-1 Jani Salonen 1500-1 Kirrill Gerasimov 1500-1 Kevin Song 1500-1 Kevin Cantwell 1500-1 Karl Limbert 1500-1 Kattrina Jett 1500-1 Ken Lennard 1500-1 Kristy Gazes 1500-1 Lee Markholt 1500-1 Lawrence Gosney 1500-1 Louis Asmo 1500-1 Leo Boxall 1500-1 Melissa Hayden 1500-1 Matty Lefkowitz 1500-1 (Mad) Marty Wilson 1500-1 Mark Gregorich 1500-1 Mike Laing 1500-1 Max Pescatori 1500-1 Mike Wattel 1500-1 Meng La 1500-1 Mikael Thuritz 1500-1 Minh Nguyen 1500-1 Noli Francisco 1500-1 Noah Boeken 1500-1 Neil (Bad Beat) Channing 1500-1 Nani Dollison 1500-1 Nick Gibson 1500-1 Paul (Eskimo) Clarke 1500-1 Perry Friedman 1500-1 Pete (The Beat) Giordano 1500-1 Per Werner Svensson 1500-1 Paul McKinney 1500-1 Paul Kroh 1500-1 Peter Gunnarson 1500-1 Paul Leckey 1500-1 Paul Alterman 1500-1 Peter Roche 1500-1 Paul Testud 1500-1 Paul (x22) Magreil 1500-1 Ron Stanley 1500-1 Robin Keston 1500-1 Ralph Perry 1500-1 Randy Holland 1500-1 Ross Boatman 1500-1 Paul (Action) Jackson 1500-1 Cliff Josephy 1500-1 Conor Tate 1500-1 Airy Phanhyaseng 1500-1 John Hoang 1500-1 Cuong Huynh 1500-1 Adam Schoenfeld 1500-1 Amarillo Slim Preston 1500-1 Ali Sarkeshik 1500-1 Aiden Bennett 1500-1 Roy (The Boy) Brindley 1500-1 Russell Rosenblum 1500-1 Russ Hamilton 1500-1 Robert Binelli 1500-1 Rumit Somaiya 1500-1 Roland De Wolfe 1500-1 Mickey (Mouse) Mills 1500-1 Glen Banks 1500-1 Clonie Gowen 1500-1 Tommy Hang 1500-1 Andy Miller 1500-1 Alan Smurfit 1500-1 Avner Levy 1500-1 Alexander Stevic 1500-1 Andre Boyer 1500-1 Aaron Kanter 1500-1 Ayhan Alsancak 1500-1 Randy (Dreamcrusher) Jensen 1500-1 Robert (Bo) Toft 1500-1 Richard Brodie 1500-1 Robert Mizrachi 1500-1 Richard Gryko 1500-1 Sherkhan Fahood 1500-1 Abe Mosseri 1500-1 Anthony Reategui 1500-1 Barny Boatman 1500-1 Barry Shulman 1500-1 Ben Roberts 1500-1 Billy Baxter 1500-1 Bobby Hoff 1500-1 Sigi Stockinger 1500-1 Simon (Aces) Trumper 1500-1 Steve Zolotow 1500-1 Sam Grizzle 1500-1 Steve (Lucky) Lui 1500-1 Sonny (Vinnegar Kid) Nijran 1500-1 Stan Schrier 1500-1 Bruno Fitoussi 1500-1 Brian Haverson 1500-1 Bob Stupak 1500-1 Brett Jungblutt 1500-1 Berry Johnston 1500-1 Bengt Sonnert 1500-1 Brian Nadell 1500-1 Stuart Nash 1500-1 Terrence Chan 1500-1 Torstein Iverson 1500-1 Tom Jacobs 1500-1 Tomer Benvenisti 1500-1 Tim Phan 1500-1 Brandon Schaefer 1500-1 Chris Bjorin 1500-1 Christer Johanson 1500-1 Carl McElvey 1500-1 Casey Kastle 1500-1 Carlo Citrone 1500-1 Chris Hinchcliffe 1500-1 Tony Popejoy 1500-1 Tom McEvoy 1500-1 Ty Bain 1500-1 Tristan McDonald 1500-1 Tommy Venus 1500-1 Tino Lechich 1500-1 Vince Burgio 1500-1 Chris Karagulleyan 1500-1 Cecilia Reyes 1500-1 Donnacha ODea 1500-1 Dewey Tomko 1500-1 David Grey 1500-1 David Minto 1500-1 Jennifer Tilley 1500-1 James Vogl 1500-1 Vinnie Vinh 1500-1 VS Senthil Kumar 1500-1 Warren Karp 1500-1 Davood Mehrmand 1500-1 Evelyn Ng 1500-1 Eric Brenes 1500-1 Ed Moncada 1500-1 Eli Balas 1500-1 Eli Elezra 1500-1 Jeff Duval 1500-1 John Duthie 1500-1 (Burnley) John Falconer 1500-1 Jay Martins 1500-1 Jess Yawitz 1500-1 JC Tran 1500-1 John Stolzman 1500-1 Frank Henderson 1500-1 Gareth Jones 1500-1 Galen Kester 1500-1 Greg Hopkins 1500-1 Gary Bush 1500-1 Harley Hall 1500-1 Hilbert Shirey 1500-1 Joe Awada 1500-1 Jim Lester 1500-1 Jeff Lisandro 1500-1 Julian Thew 1500-1 John Murphy 1500-1 James Grimes 1500-1 Robert Graf 1500-1 Victoria Coren 2000-1 Brian Lamkin 2000-1 Lee Vaccaro 2000-1 Champie Douglas 2000-1 Joe Tehan 2000-1 Theo Tran 2000-1 Kevin Blakey 2000-1 David Daneshgar 2000-1 Steven Hades 2000-1 Bau Le 2000-1 Gregg Merkow 2000-1 Raul Paez-Corral 2000-1 Lars Bonding 2000-1 Quinn Do 2000-1 Tony Chessa 2000-1 Bobby Baldwin 2000-1 Stanley Weiss 2000-1 Devin Porter 2000-1 Steve Frederick 2000-1 Norm Ketchum Jnr 2000-1 Kianoosh Mohajeri 2000-1 Robert Bright 2000-1 Sean McCabe 2000-1 Alex Prendes Jnr 2000-1 Billy Seber 2000-1 Rodeen Talebi 2000-1 Marc Goodwin 2000-1 Don Mullis 2000-1 Mark Muchnik 2000-1 Alex Prendes 2000-1 Gene Timberlake 2000-1 Ray Sanchez 2000-1 Steve Paul-Ambrose 2000-1 David Cossio 2000-1 Jamie Ligator 2000-1 Robert Goldfarb 2000-1 Mark Teltscher 2000-1 Grant Lang 2000-1 Ville Wahlbeck 2000-1 Sverre Sundbo 2000-1 Steve Jelinek 2000-1 Fuat Can 2000-1 Alex Kahaner 2000-1 Ash Parvais 2000-1 Achilleas Kallakis 2000-1 Paul (The Grifter) Griffin 2000-1 Ron Rose 2000-1 Steve Brecher 2000-1 Shane Schleger 2000-1 Scott Lazar 2000-1 Stuart Fox 2000-1 Steven Hudak 2000-1 Shah Koumi 2000-1 Sebastian Riviere 2000-1 Bruce (Elvis Senior) Atkinson 2000-1 Mark (Prince Charles) Banin 2000-1 Jim Reid 2000-1 Ray Davis 2000-1 Fred Lavassani 2000-1 Charles Pachelo 2000-1 Al Krux 2000-1 Adam White 2000-1 Bill (Miros) Purle 2000-1 Bob Feduniak 2000-1 Bruce van Horn 2000-1 Bob Cooper 2000-1 Brad Kondracki 2000-1 Stephen Wilsdon 2000-1 Simon Nowab 2000-1 (Smokin) Steve Vlader 2000-1 Steve Dannenmann 2000-1 Terry Myers 2000-1 Tony Hartmann 2000-1 Tommy Garza 2000-1 Dannie Perry 2000-1 Bashar Satoot 2000-1 Steve Ford 2000-1 Bahman Sabahi 2000-1 Ben Johnson 2000-1 Sirious Baghchehsaraie 2000-1 Mario Esquerra 2000-1 Barbara Enright 2000-1 Bruce Yamron 2000-1 Bambos Xanthe 2000-1 Burt Boutin 2000-1 Ben Affleck 2000-1 Brad Daugherty 2000-1 Toby (Spiderman) Maguire 2000-1 Tommy Grimes 2000-1 Tom Werthmann 2000-1 Victor Ramdin 2000-1 Walter Chambers 2000-1 Woody Deck 2000-1 Wendeen Elios 2000-1 Gioi Luong 2000-1 Danny Dang 2000-1 Angelo Besnainou 2000-1 Ed De Haas 2000-1 Eric Mizrachi 2000-1 Tiffany Williamson 2000-1 Jac Fox 2000-1 John Gale 2000-1 Ken Jacobs 2000-1 Kathy Kolberg 2000-1 Kevin OConnell 2000-1 Lyle Berman 2000-1 Can Kim Hua 2000-1 Matt Matros 2000-1 Mike Kinney 2000-1 Marsha Waggoner 2000-1 Mads Anderson 2000-1 Maureen Feduniak 2000-1 Max Stern 2000-1 Maria Stern 2000-1 Doug Lee 2000-1 Tobias Persson 2000-1 Henry (Nuggett) Nowakowski 2000-1 Mickey Wernick 2000-1 Michael Keiner 2000-1 Mike Magee 2000-1 Mohammid Ibrahim 2000-1 Mimi Tran 2000-1 Michel Abecassis 2000-1 Matthew Glantz 2000-1 Luca Pagano 2000-1 Marco Traniello 2000-1 Scott Flansburg 2000-1 Tim Flanders 2000-1 Howard (Magician) Plant 2000-1 Mike MacLean 2000-1 Mike Sica 2000-1 Martin Wendt 2000-1 Mike May 2000-1 Mike Caro 2000-1 Marcus Golser 2000-1 Nick Frangos 2000-1 Graham Hiew 2000-1 Martin Cedencrantz 2000-1 Erich Kollmann 2000-1 Dave Shallow 2000-1 Dennis OMahoney 2000-1 Alan Kalleher 2000-1 Nick Persaud 2000-1 Noel Furlong 2000-1 Pete Vilandros 2000-1 Paul Deng 2000-1 Paul (Marbella Kid) Zimbler 2000-1 Per Hilderbrand 2000-1 Patrick Bruel 2000-1 Martin Green 2000-1 Emmanuel Sebag 2000-1 Bernd Rygol 2000-1 Didier Leroy 2000-1 Peter Hedlund 2000-1 Alexander Dietrich 2000-1 Sarah Bilney 2000-1 Perry Green 2000-1 Robert Perry 2000-1 Richard Grijalva 2000-1 Robert Varkonyi 2000-1 Ron Kirk 2000-1 Richard Ashby 2000-1 Randal Heeb 2000-1 Dimitri (The Idiot) Ttofi 2000-1 Ben (Milkybarkid) Grundy 2000-1 Chuck Thompson 2000-1 CT Law 2000-1 Charlie (Daddy Warbucks) Shoten 2000-1 Daniel Bergsdorf 2000-1 Don Barton 2000-1 Xuyen (Bad Girl) Pham 2000-1 Yevgeny Kafelnikov 2000-1 Scott Wilson 2000-1 Dave (Pommo) Pomroy 2000-1 Jesse Martin 2000-1 Todd Witteles 2000-1 Dewey Weum 2000-1 Derek Baxter 2000-1 Daniel Beazer 2000-1 David Sklansky 2000-1 Dave Barnes 2000-1 Eddie Scharf 2000-1 Eli Marciano 2000-1 Jan Sorenssen 2000-1 Thomas Middlethon 2000-1 Liz Lieu 2000-1 Keith Sexton 2000-1 Arnold Spres 2000-1 Eric (Sheets) Haber 2000-1 Alex (Yahtzem) Jacobs 2000-1 Frank Callaghan 2000-1 Fabrice Soulier 2000-1 Fred Berger 2000-1 Frank Sinopoli 2000-1 Gary Lent 2000-1 Gerry Drehobl 2000-1 Glenn Hughes 2000-1 Steven (Stevesbets) Jacob 2000-1 Nick (Takeover) Shulman 2000-1 Thang (Kido) Pham 2000-1 Wendell Barnes 2000-1 Jeff Rine 2000-1 Darrell (Gigabet) Dicken 2000-1 Rehne Pederson 2000-1 Gabe Kaplan 2000-1 George McKeever 2000-1 Greg Alston 2000-1 Hugh Kirton 2000-1 Herschel Zalewski 2000-1 Hon Le 2000-1 Isaac Galazan 2000-1 Joe Grech 2000-1 James Hoeppner 2000-1 James Woods 2000-1 Jose Rosencrantz 2000-1 James McManus 2000-1 Jack McClelland 2000-1 John Strzemp 2000-1 Jeremy Tinsley 2000-1 Jiang Chen 2000-1 Jerry Young 2000-1 Jeri Thomas 2000-1 Jon Brody 2000-1 Joe Bartholdi Jr 2000-1 James Sousa 2000-1 John McIntosh 2000-1 Jac Arama 2000-1 Jan Ljundberg 2000-1 Helen (Hells Bells) Chamberlain 2500-1 Steve (The Nugget) Davis 2500-1 Mathew Stevens 2500-1 Stephen Hendry 2500-1 Shannon Sharpe 2500-1 Mike Tindell 2500-1 Teddy Sherringham 2500-1 Erica Schoenberg 2500-1 Paul Parker 2500-1 Avery Cardoza 2500-1 Mark Entwistle 2500-1 Rob Yong 2500-1 Ryan Kallberg 2500-1 David Nguyen 2500-1 Jean (The Prince) Gaspard 2500-1 James Carroll 2500-1 Jose Tavares 2500-1 Dan Samson 2500-1 Steven Diamantas 2500-1 Joe Cassidy 2500-1 Nhut Tran 2500-1 Mats Iremark 2500-1 Ian Chin 2500-1 Jonathan Zuchowski 2500-1 Hal Fowler 2500-1 Mansour Matloubi 2500-1 Steve Hill 2500-1 Hamid Dastmalchi 2500-1 Vanessa Rousso 2500-1 Anthony (Big Deal) Holden 3000-1 Nick Chammas 3000-1 Nick Scott 3000-1 Tai Tran 3000-1 Marco Camilleri 3000-1 |
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